SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long 8/29/22 4030.61; sold 3990.03 on 9/2/22= loss 1%.
Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral.
The low last week did not record panic in the TRIN to the degree we like to see for a durable bottom. However, the TICK close did have panic readings at the last low. To setup a bullish signal, both the TICK and TRIN need to record panic readings. This week is option expiration week, which has a bullish bias. So far, we don’t have a setup for a bullish option expiration week. The bottom window is the 3-day average of the TRIN, and readings below .60 (current reading is .53) have stalled the rally short-term. We don’t expect the rally to continue much longer, as not enough panic was recorded in the TICK and TRIN combination to expect a sustainable rally. Next week is the weakest week of the year, according to seasonality. If the market does pull back next week, an intermediate-term setup is possible for a rally into year-end.
Its usually not a good sign for the market if the VIX is up when the SPY is also up, and that happened today. Usually, the SPX trades opposite the VIX; when both are up, then there is a divergence, and divergences occur near a reversal in the market. The third window up from the bottom is the VVIX/VIX ratio, which helps to define the trend for the SPX, and today it turned down. There are divergences present.
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